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Subrata Lahiri

Head, Department of Public Health and Mortality Studies
International Institute for Population Sciences
Mortality and Morbidity in the Indian Subcontinent and Selected Developed Countries: Perspectives, Contrast and Challenges
India

Subrata Lahiri (India) is Professor and Head of the Department of Public Health & Mortality Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, India. His teaching and/or research interests are (i) Mathematical Demography and Actuarial Methods; (ii) Techniques of Mortality Analysis for countries with limited and defective data; (iii) Gender role in fertility preferences and accompanying sex-preferences among Indian couples; and (iv) Social & Demographic Aspects of HIV/AIDS in India. He has published widely on mortality & public health and issues related to fertility preferences in national and international journals of repute.

Dr. Lahiri obtained the Master degree in Statistics with specialization in Demography, and the Doctorate Degree from the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata (Calcutta). He was the recipient of a Rockefeller postdoctoral fellowship for one and half years during 1987-88, to carry out research in 'Formal Demography and Mortality Analysis' at the Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, in collaboration with Professor Samuel H. Preston.

Dr. Lahiri served as the Coordinator and Resource Person for various short-term training programmes on a variety of issues related to the Population Studies organized at IIPS, Mumbai for officials from India and abroad sponsored by both national organizations (CSO, NSSO, and UGC) and international organizations (UNFPA, WHO, ILO, UNICEF), as well as Government and non-Government organizations from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. Prof. Lahiri has also worked as a consultant at the national and international levels to prepare the project report on 'Estimating Life Expectancy in Rural India' sponsored by the National Institute of Rural Development, Hyderabad, India, and a report on "Awareness and Knowledge on HIV/AIDS among Indian Women" sponsored by the East-West Center (EWC), Honolulu, Hawaii. He is also a co-editor of "Sankhya" an Indian Journal of Statistics of international repute and holds membership in various national and international scientific bodies.

· Subrata Lahiri, Arni S. R. Rao, and S. Srinivasan. (2000) Role of Age-Specific Growth Rates on Population Ageing in Some Developed and Developing Countries -- A Comparative Study. Revised Version presented in an IUSSP sponsored Workshop on Age Structural Transitions and Policy Implications held at Phuket, Thailand, Nov. 8-10.
· Subrata Lahiri, and Lysander Menezes. (2000) A Census-Based Method of Estimating Longevity at Adult Ages in Destabilized Populations. Presented in the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Los Angeles during March 22-25.
· Subrata Lahiri, and A. S. R. Srinivasa Rao. (1998) Sex-Differentials in Mortality Decline in India and its Major States over the Periods 1981-85 and 1991-93. IASSI Quarterly, Vol.16, No.3 & 4, pp.32-52.
· Deborah Balk, and Subrata Lahiri (1997). "Awareness and Knowledge of AIDS Among Indian Women: Evidence from 13 States. In Health Transition Review, Supplement to Vol.7, 1997 pp.421-465 (see also East-West Center Working Papers, Population Series No. 83, East-West Center, Hawaii, USA: August 1996).
· Samuel H. Preston, and Subrata Lahiri. (1991) A short-cut Method for Estimating Death Registration Completeness in Destabilized Populations. Mathematical Population Studies, vol.3, No.1.

The present research proposal has been prepared after reviewing the mortality situation in the more developed and less developed regions during the twentieth century and the problems associated in obtaining sufficiently good morbidity data, particularly in less developed regions. In the second half of the twentieth century the world as a whole experienced much faster mortality decline. At global level, the life expectancy at birth increased from 46.5 years during 1950-55 to 64.1 during 1990-95. In other words at global level, a gain of 17.6 years of life was observed over a period of 40 years since 1950-55. However, the less developed region had experienced much impressive mortality decline over the aforesaid periods due to spectacular improvement in medical sciences, and increased general awareness of various public health measures, and better hygiene. In the less developed region, the life expectancy at birth increased by more than fifty percent, that is, increasing from 40.9 years in 1950-55 to an estimated 61.9 years in 1990-95. And consequently the gap in longevity between less developed and more developed regions decreased from 25 years during 1950-55 to 12 years during 1990-95. The following observations are worth noting in the context of assessing the extent and impact of mortality transition. In 1950-55 there were only five countries with life expectancy at birth 70 years or more, whereas during 1990-95 this number became 74 which represent 40 per cent of the countries in the world accounting for 22 per cent of the world population. At the other end of the ladder, during 1950-55 there were 81 countries with life expectancy below 45 years that reduced to 11 countries during 1990-95. These 11 countries account for less than one per cent of the world population.

The morbidity statistics are in general more deficient worldwide than the mortality statistics. It is needless emphasized that the morbidity statistics are more deficient in the less developed regions than the more developed regions. However, after the Alma Ata declaration on 'Health for All by 2000 A.D', and particularly after the International Conference on Population Development at Cairo many national governments of various developing countries have taken serious steps to improve upon the general health situation of their countrymen. It is generally believed that the level of morbidity of a community is closely (positively) associated to the level of mortality. Since in general the morbidity statistics in India and other developing countries are primarily based on perceived or reported sickness rather than clinically tested cases, such an association should be interpreted very carefully. Furthermore, such a perception is highly influenced by their knowledge about the sickness, and also by their heath seeking behaviour, which are very much associated with the educational attainment, and socio-economic conditions of the respondents, and the environmental surroundings as well of the respondents in which they belong. It is quite possible that the highly educated persons are likely to be more conscious about their health status, and thereby the reporting of morbidity could be much higher compared to poorly educated persons.

Keeping in mind the above observations it is proposed in this study to examine the level, trends, and pattern of mortality and morbidity after 1970 in the Indian subcontinent along with few developed countries, such as, Japan, USA, and Australia. Attempts will also be made to identify the determinants of the changes in mortality and morbidity after 1970 in these countries. Furthermore, an attempt will also be made to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS on the adult mortality in the Indian subcontinent. This research project will be carried out in collaboration with Dr. Shripad Tuljapurkar, Morrison Professor of Population Studies, Professor of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, USA.